“The opinion of 10,000 men is of no value if none of them know anything about the subject.”
— Marcus Aurelius
I take every opportunity I can to quote Marcus Aurelius, his wisdom offers an appropriate lens through which to view the current market environment. His quote cautions us against clinging too tightly to “market narratives,” and recent events provide a timely example of why this caution is necessary.
Just a month ago, nearly every headline warned that tariffs would drive inflation even higher, compounding the existing inflationary pressures. But in the past few weeks, the market has written a completely different story. The bond market has seen money flow in, which has pushed interest rates lower (shown below with a chart of the 10-year Treasury Bond as of 3/10/25). Typically, if the market truly expected accelerating inflation, we would see the opposite—investors fleeing bonds, causing interest rates to rise.
So, what gives? The truth is, there are always more factors at play in the market than the loudest narrative would suggest. Markets are complex systems with an infinite number of moving parts. The issue that garners the most attention is not always the most important to long-term investors. In some cases, the issue may be appropriately highlighted, but the outcome is not as expected!
This is precisely why we don’t trade headlines. Instead, we focus on real macroeconomic data and adjust your portfolios accordingly. This disciplined approach prevents us from making two deadly investing mistakes:
- Greed — Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and chasing highs.
- Fear — Sitting on the sidelines during rallies and missing potential gains.
While the future is never entirely predictable, one thing remains certain: the market is full of contradictory signals, making it nearly impossible to forecast exact outcomes. That is why your team at WNY Asset Management is here to guide your investments through the ups and downs. Staying invested, focusing on genuine opportunities, and maintaining a diversified approach will keep you on track toward your financial goals—and most importantly, allow you to rest easy.